There seems to be general agreement — with the exception of me — about the Sox, Yanks and Rays competing for the top slots and the O's and Jays filling out the bottom of the bracket. Wow, gutsy calls, guys. I bet you all bought T-bills at zero percent, too.
Most of you fail to weigh economic factors heavily enough in your analysis. I'm making the case that the 2009 Red Sox are the Bernie Madoffs of Major League Baseball: they appear successful so long as there is a continual influx of resources from below. Once those resources dry up, the whole system crumbles. To make up for the contributions lost when established players age, get injured or leave, the Red Sox rely on their farm products; too heavily, I would say. In years past, they could afford to throw about one guy a year into the mix: Youkilis, Papelbon, Lester, Perdroia. This year, the youngsters on the team — Ellsbury, Lowery, Buchholz, Masterson, Bard, Bowden, etc., etc. — all need to have breakout years in order for the Sox to succeed, because the rest of the team is much weaker.
(Consider 2006, when the two youngsters the organization relied upon heavily were Manny Delcarmen and — yikes — Erik Hansen. In that case, only two crucial guys failed to perform as well as projected.)
If the youngsters don't perform, management will be forced to go out and get the pieces they need. This is Erik's point when he says,
[The Red Sox] have the assets to go out and get players in year that we may see more teams willing to part with their players due to the uncertainty in the economy. A team that in previous years didn't dump salary because they were only five games out, might be more willing if they are in a smaller market.What I'm saying is, such stopgap measures rarely work. Just ask the Yankees. This ponzi scheme won't survive the summer.
So, again, my five:
- New York Yankees (AL East champs)
- Tampa Bay Rays (wild card)
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Baltimore Orioles
- Boston Red Sox
Dave Pazzaglia
ReplyDeleteI do agree with your logic and reasoning with having the Yankees as the favorite to win the league. As to the contrary of many others you must be a realist when looking at this team and I'm not even a Yankees fan. There pitching staff is just to dominate and even if there pitching has an off night they have enough bats to supply the firepower to get wins.
Vice Versa there is no way the Sox are going to finish last in the division. I do agree however that the youngsters like Ellsbury, Lowery, Buchholz, and Masterson will have to have sensational years to make the difference for this team. However, the team still has enough solid pitching to get them enough wins to get the Wild Card. Beckett should return to previous form, and Dice K and Lester should be able to deliver enough wins to get them at least a wild card spot. We know what to expect from Papelbon and that will be closing out games night in and night out. If Youkilis and Perdroia perform offensively like last year and Big Papi can rekindle his offense presence from the championship seasons the Sox will have enough to be atop the AL East bidding for a championship. To put the Orioles and the Blue Jays above the Sox is just not going to happen. The Blue Jays traded away all their marque players and Orioles bring nothing to the table.
It's hard to argue your wild card spot due to the fact that the Rays basically have the same team they had last year that won them the division. However, I still feel the Sox will prevail in the end to get the wild card spot.
AL East
1. New York Yankees (AL East Champs)
2. Boston Red Sox (Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles